Chances Of Winning At Craps
Let’s face it, as much fun as it is going to the casino and playing craps, winning at the craps table is a heck of a lot more fun than losing.
You could expect on average 18.94 points made on a 6 or 8, 13.33 on a 5 or 9, and 8.33 on a 4 or 10. Are the craps probability numbers with the odds taken 100% reliable. Also is the gaming industry your full time profession, and do you visit Atlantic City often? Also, how do you simulate billions and billions of hands, spins, and rolls. Overall Craps Odds. Some players ask about their overall chances of winning or losing at craps. Honestly, with most games of chance players will do well to expect to lose more than what they win. Statistically, in a particular session the mathematical odds reinforce the odds of losing are slightly greater than the odds of winning.
To increase your chances of winning, and before you put your hard earned money down on the table, you should at least have a rudimentary knowledge of the odds, payouts and house edge for each of the bets on the table.
Before we get into the details, let’s get a couple of things out of the way first.
- The casino always wins in the long run.
- The casino’s revenues are built on the statistical probabilities of the outcomes, payouts and house edge of each of the bets in the casino and at the craps tables over the long term. (24/7, 365 days a year).
- BUT… We’re only at the casino and at the craps table for a short period of time. (a day, weekend, week, etc.). You’re better positioned to take advantage of short term trends at the table and… sometimes you just get lucky! Advanced craps players can sometimes even flip some of the odds into their favor.
- The casino’s advantage extends beyond the house edge.
- In addition to the house edge on each bet, the casino is banking on the fact that most players at the craps tables don’t know how to play the game and don’t know the smart vs. not so smart bets on the table.
- SO… By doing what you are doing right now, learning how to play the game well and understanding the probabilities and house edge for each of the bets on the table, you’re effectively reducing the casino advantage over you. Aside from becoming an advanced player, this is your best bet for leaving the tables and the casino, a winner.
- While you’re at the tables, you’d might as well have some fun.
- While most of my play is, and your play should be, centered around the smarter bets on the table, don’t forget that you’re there to have a good time. There is nothing wrong with throwing some dollars on the ‘not so smart’ bets when you want to. I do it myself from time to time if the table is slow and I’m looking for a little more action or when I’m playing with house money. As long as you’re making an informed decision… then go for it.
The allure of the craps table has been the downfall of legendary gamblers from Nick 'The Greek' Dandalos to poker pro T.J. Cloutier, but you can be a winning craps player if you follow some very important rules, like learning the odds at craps. Learn craps rules and you'll be thankful.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get to work on getting you to be an informed gambler at the craps tables.
Odds, Payouts, House Edge
So that you better understand the tables below, I’m going to give you a basic explanation of how the odds and payouts determine the edge that the house has over you.
Don’t worry, I wasn’t very good at math either and you don’t need to understand the formula above… I certainly don’t. All you need is the table below… it’s all figured out for you. If you’re looking for a deeper explanation there are a lot of statistics and probability websites out there to research.
- ODDS: This is the probability that an outcome will occur.
- For example, if I were to flip a coin, the probability (or ODDs) that it would come up heads is 50% or 1 out of every 2 times the coin is flipped, IN THE LONG RUN. So if I flip the coin 1000 times, it will probably come very close to 500 heads and 500 tails. (This would be 1 to 1 ODDs)
- That doesn’t mean that IN THE SHORT TERM it will come out heads every other time it’s flipped. You may get 2 heads in a row, 5 heads in a row, or maybe even 10 heads in a row, but IN THE LONG RUN you’re most likely going to get close to the same number of heads and tails outcomes.
- The SHORT TERM TRENDS are what we want to take advantage of to leave the table a winner.
- PAYOUTS:The amount the casino pays you each time your outcome occurs.
- Using the coin flip example above, imagine that you’re betting $5 on heads each time the coin is flipped. At even (or 1 to 1) ODDs, you should get paid $5 every time it comes up heads. But that’s not how it works at the casino. They have a built in ‘vig’ that pays you less than the true odds.
- So let’s imagine that at this casino, they pay you $4 every time heads is flipped. In 10 flips, if it comes up heads 9 times… you’ve won $45.
- But if you flip the coin 100 times and it comes out 50 heads and 50 tails, you just lost $100 even though you won an even amount of times.
- (100 flips at $5 = $500) (50 wins (heads) paid $4 each = $400) = ($100 loss)
- This is where the HOUSE EDGE comes in.
- HOUSE EDGE:The percentage difference between the true odds of a winning outcome and the payout for that winning outcome.
- This is how the casino always wins in the long term… by paying you less than the true probability of the outcome you bet on.
- In the coin flip example, your betting $5 on an even odds bets, but they’re only paying you $4 for every win. In this example, the house edge on this bet is a whopping 20%. (This would qualify as a ‘Not So Smart’ bet.)
Your goal is to lessen the casino’s house edge over you so you have the best chance of winning. Just focus most of your betting on the bets that have the lowest house edge.
SMART BETS
These are the bets with the lowest House Edge and give you the best chance of winning. An easy way to remember these… They are on the right and left sides of the table. Most of your betting should be focused on these bets.
NOT SO SMART BETS
These are the bets that give the casino the highest House Edge and their greatest advantage over you. Again, there is nothing wrong with betting on any of these as long as you’re making an informed decision on what you’re betting on.
These bets are typically located in the center of the table in front of the stickman.
You are now a much more educated gambler and much better equipped to win at the craps table and against the casino.
What Are Your Chances Of Winning At Craps
Feel free to leave any comments that would be helpful to readers learning about odds, payouts and house edge.
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In the meantime…
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BEST OF LUCK AT THE CASINOS!!!